Accelerating drug development for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: construction and application of a disease course model using historical placebo group data.

BACKGROUND: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is an irreversible degenerative disease. Placebo-controlled randomized trials are currently the main trial design to assess the clinical efficacy of drugs for ALS treatment. The aim of this study was to establish models to quantitatively describe the course of ALS, explore influencing factors, and provide the necessary information for ALS drug development. METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive search of PubMed and the Cochrane Library Central Register for placebo-controlled trials that evaluated treatments for ALS. From these trials, we extracted the clinical and demographic characteristics of participants in the placebo group, as well as outcome data, which encompassed overall survival (OS) and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS-R) scores, at various time points. RESULTS: In total, 47 studies involving 6118 participants were included. Disease duration and the proportion of patients receiving riluzole were identified as significant factors influencing OS in the placebo group. Specifically, the median OS was 35.5 months for a disease duration of 9 months, whereas it was 20.0 months for a disease duration of 36 months. Furthermore, for every 10% increase in the proportion of patients treated with riluzole (100 mg daily), there was an association with a median OS extension of approximately 0.4 months. The estimated time for the ALSFRS-R score in the placebo group to decrease to 50% of its maximum effect from baseline level was approximately 17.5 months, and the time to reach a plateau was about 40 months. CONCLUSIONS: The established disease course model of the historical placebo group is valuable in the decision-making process for the clinical development of ALS drugs. It serves not only as an external control to evaluate the efficacy of the tested drug in single-arm trials but also as prior information that aids in accurately estimating the posterior distribution of the disease course in the placebo group during small-sample clinical trials.

Optimization of secukinumab dose regimens in patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis via exposure-response modeling.

BACKGROUND: Further dose optimization is required for patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis who do not benefit from the approved secukinumab dose regimen. This study aimed to develop an exposure-response model for secukinumab to recommend dose regimens for patients of different body weights. METHODS: We searched the PubMed and Cochrane Library databases for randomized controlled trials using PASI 75 and PASI 90 response rates as primary outcomes. A model-based meta-analysis was developed to quantitatively analyze the distribution of six secukinumab dose regimens in patients weighing 50-120 kg. RESULTS: Sixteen trials involving 6,197 subjects were included in the analysis. The established model accurately described the time-course characteristics of PASI 75 and PASI 90 response rates over 52 weeks. Simulations indicated that maintenance doses could be reduced to 150 mg every 4 weeks and to 150 mg every 3 weeks for patients weighing 50 and 60 kg, respectively. In contrast, maintenance doses of 300 mg every 3 weeks should be selected for patients weighing 120 kg. Patients weighing 70-110 kg remained on approved maintenance doses of 300 mg every 4 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Based on patient body weights, the exposure-response model recommends efficacious and economical dose regimens for patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis.

LABA/LAMA versus LABA/ICS fixed-dose combinations in the prevention of COPD exacerbations: a modeling analysis of literature aggregate data.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to quantitatively compare the efficacy and safety of long-acting ß2-agonist (LABA)/long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) and LABA/inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) in preventing moderate or severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. METHODS: A literature search was performed using public databases. The time course characteristics of the probability of a moderate or severe exacerbation in stable COPD patients treated with LABA/LAMA and LABA/ICS FDCs were described by the parametric survival function. A random-effects model in a single-arm meta-analysis was used to analyze the incidence of serious adverse events (SAEs) and pneumonia. RESULTS: Twenty studies including 23,955 participants were included. The proportion of participants with a history of COPD exacerbation (%) in the previous year and the postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) (%predicted) were important factors affecting drug efficacy. After adjusting the above factors to median levels of 100% and 45.5%, respectively, the moderate or severe exacerbation rates at 52 weeks for olodaterol/tiotropium, formoterol/budesonide, indacaterol/glycopyrronium, formoterol/glycopyrronium, vilanterol/fluticasone, salmeterol/fluticasone, and vilanterol/umeclidinium were 38.3%, 41.0%, 42.6%, 47.0%, 47.5%, 47.9%, and 53.0%, respectively. In terms of safety, significant differences were observed among drugs containing different LABA/LAMA FDCs. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that not all LABA/LAMA FDCs were superior to LABA/ICS FDCs in safety and in preventing moderate or severe exacerbations in patients with stable COPD, providing important quantitative information for COPD-related guidelines.

A Synthetic External Control Study Comparing the Clinical Efficacy of Wendan Decoction and 19 Antidepressants.

BACKGROUND: Wendan decoction (WDD) has been used as a treatment for depression in China since the Tang Dynasty. However, high-quality evidence for this is lacking. This study proposed a novel synthetic external control method to evaluate its clinical efficacy. METHODS: We searched public databases for clinical trials of WDD for major depression. The rate of change of the Hamilton Depression Scale score from baseline was used as an efficacy indicator, and a model-based meta-analysis was performed to analyze the clinical efficacy of WDD. To establish a reference standard for efficacy, the antidepressant efficacy distributions of a placebo and 19 antidepressants were virtually synthesized based on the same conditions as the clinical trial characteristics of WDD. RESULTS: This study included 5 clinical trials with 177 participants. WDD showed a slow onset, with a time to reach the maximum effect of 9.71 weeks. At 8 weeks, the rate of change in the Hamilton Depression Scale score from baseline was 66.4% (95% CI = 62.3%-70.3%) in the WDD group. The pure effect value of WDD, after deducting the placebo effect, was 26.9% (95%CI = 23.0%-30.9%), which was comparable with 5 types of antidepressants and significantly higher than the others. CONCLUSION: The proposed external synthetic control method provides a solution to the bottleneck problem of clinical efficacy evaluation in real-world research on traditional Chinese medicine. WDD has high clinical development value for the treatment of depression, and large-scale randomized controlled trials are recommended to confirm its antidepressant effect.

Difference in Efficacy and Safety of Anti-CD19 Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-Cell Therapy Containing 4-1BB and CD28 Co-Stimulatory Domains for B-Cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia.

This study quantified the differences in the efficacy and safety of different stimulation domains of anti-CD19 chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T therapy for B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (B-ALL). Clinical trials related to anti-CD19 CAR T-cell therapy for B-ALL were searched in public databases from database inception to 13 November 2021. The differences in overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of B-ALL patients treated with anti-CAR T-cell therapy containing 4-1BB and CD28 co-stimulatory domains were compared by establishing a parametric survival function. The overall remission rate (ORR), the proportion of people with minimal residual disease (MRD)-negative complete remission (CR), the incidence of cytokine release syndrome (CRS), and the neurotoxicity across different co-stimulatory domains was assessed using a random-effects model. The correlation between the ORR, MRD-negative CR, PFS, and OS was tested. The results showed that the median OS of anti-CAR T-cell treatment containing 4-1BB and CD28 co-stimulatory domains was 15.0 months (95% CI: 11.0-20.0) and 8.5 months (95% CI: 5.0-14.0), and the median PFS was 7.0 months (95% CI: 4.0-11.5) and 3.0 months (95% CI: 1.5-7.0), respectively. Anti-CD19 CAR T-cells in the 4-1BB co-stimulatory domain showed superior benefits in patients who achieved ORR. The incidence of neurotoxicity was significantly higher in the CD28 co-stimulatory domain of anti-CD19 CAR T-cells than in the 4-1BB co-stimulatory domain. In addition, the ORR and MRD-negative CR were strongly correlated with OS and PFS, and PFS and OS were strongly correlated. The 4-1BB co-stimulatory domain suggested a better benefit-risk ratio than the CD28 co-stimulatory domain in B-ALL.

Quantitative comparison of the efficacy of clinical drug treatments for primary progressive multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: This study proposes a comprehensive quantitative evaluation of the efficacy of drugs and placebo in clinical trials for primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS). METHODS: A literature search was conducted using the PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library databases and the clinical studies reporting drug efficacy in the treatment of PPMS were included in the analyses. The cumulative proportion of patients without confirmed disability progression (wCDP%) was used as the main efficacy endpoint. The model-based meta-analysis method was used to describe the time course of each drug (as well as placebo) in order to rank the drug efficacy for the treatment of PPMS. RESULTS: Fifteen studies involving 3779 patients were included, of which, nine were placebo-controlled and six were single-arm trials. Twelve drugs were included in the study. The results showed that, except for biotin, interferon ß-1a, and interferon ß-1b, whose efficacy was comparable to the placebo, the efficacy of the other 9 drugs were significantly better than placebo. Among these, ocrelizumab showed outstanding performance, with wCDP% of 72.6 at 96 weeks, while the proportions of rest of the drugs ranged between approximately 55-70%. CONCLUSION: The results of this study provide the necessary quantitative information for both the rational clinical use of drugs and future clinical trials in primary progressive multiple sclerosis.

A model-based quantitative analysis of efficacy and associated factors of platelet rich plasma treatment for osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: While platelet rich plasma (PRP) has been extensively studied in treating osteoarthritis (OA), there has been an ongoing debate regarding the efficacy of PRP and the optimal subpopulation for PRP treatment remains unknown. The authors hereby aim to establish a pharmacodynamic model-based meta-analysis to quantitatively evaluate PRP efficacy, comparing with hyaluronic acid (HA) and identify relevant factors that significantly affect the efficacy of PRP treatment for OA. METHODS: The authors searched for PubMed and the Cochrane Library Central Register of Controlled Trials of PRP randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for the treatment of symptomatic or radiographic OA from the inception dates to 15 July 2022. Participants' clinical and demographic characteristics and efficacy data, defined as Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index and visual analog scale pain scores at each time point were extracted. RESULTS: A total of 45 RCTs (3829 participants) involving 1805 participants injected with PRP were included in the analysis. PRP reached a peak efficacy at ~ 2-3 months after injection in patients with OA. Both conventional meta-analysis and pharmacodynamic maximal effect models showed that PRP was significantly more effective than HA for joint pain and function impairment (additional decrease of 1.1, 0.5, 4.3, and 1.1 scores compared to HA treatment at 12 months for Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain, stiffness, function, and visual analog scale pain scores, respectively). Higher baseline symptom scores, older age (≥60 years), higher BMI (≥30), lower Kellgren-Lawrence grade (≤2) and shorter OA duration (<6 months) were significantly associated with greater efficacy of PRP treatment. CONCLUSION: These findings sugges t that PRP is a more effective treatment for OA than the more well-known HA treatment. The authors also determined the time when the PRP injection reaches peak efficacy and optimized the targeting subpopulation of OA. Further high-quality RCTs are required to confirm the optimal population of PRP in the treatment of OA.

Quantitative comparison of different inhaled corticosteroids in the treatment of asthma in children.

BACKGROUND: The GINA recommends inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) for the treatment of steps 2-3 of childhood asthma. However, the difference in efficacy between these drugs remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to compare the efficacy of different ICS drugs in the treatment of childhood asthma. METHODS: We searched PubMed and EMBASE for randomized controlled trials of ICSs in the treatment of childhood asthma. Using forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) as the primary outcome, a time-course model of ICSs was constructed. In addition, the symptom-free days% were analyzed as a secondary outcome. RESULTS: Six studies involving 2237 children that reported FEV1 were included. The results showed that the ET50 of ciclesonide (CIC) and budesonide (BUD) was 1.23 and 2.97 weeks, respectively. Compared with them, FP had a higher efficacy. In terms of symptom-free days%, we found that the efficacy of beclometasone dipropionate was lower than that of CIC and fluticasone propionate. CONCLUSION: In this study, the efficacy of three ICS drugs was quantitatively compared, providing necessary information for the implementation of medication guidelines for steps 2-3 of asthma in children. IMPACT: This study analyzed the entire time-course of the drug efficacy of Inhaled corticosteroids in the treatment of asthma in children aged 5-12, which found that although the maximum efficacy of both ciclesonide and budesonide was the same, the onset speed of ciclesonide was faster than that of budesonide. The above information provides the necessary quantitative information for the implementation of medication guidelines for steps 2-3 asthma in children.

Quantitative evaluation of therapy options for relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: A model-based meta-analysis.

New therapies for relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (r/rDLBCL) have emerged in recent years, but there have been no comprehensive quantitative comparisons of the efficacy of these therapies. In this study, the efficacy characteristics of 11 types of treatment strategy and 63 treatment regimens were compared by model based meta-analysis. We found that compared with monotherapy, association therapy had significant benefits in terms of overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR). However, whereas treatment regimens involving chemotherapy contributed to significant improvements in ORR and PFS, OS was not improved. In terms of treatment strategy, we identified chemotherapy in association with immunotherapy sequential autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT), the association of two different types of immunotherapies, chemotherapy sequential ASCT, chemotherapy in association with immunotherapy, and chemotherapy in association with two types of immunotherapies as showing better efficacy. With respect to specific treatment regimens, we found that the following had better efficacy: rituximab in association with inotuzumab ozogamicin; rituximab in association with carmustine, etoposide, cytarabine, and melphalan sequential ASCT (R-BEAM+ASCT); lenalidomide in association with rituximab, etoposide, cisplatin, cytarabine, and methylprednisolone; iodine-131 tositumomab in association with BEAM sequential ASCT; and chemotherapy sequential chimeric antigen receptor T-cell immunotherapy, with median OS of 48.2, 34.2, 27.8, 25.8, and 25 months, respectively. Moreover, with respect to association therapy, there was a strong correlation between the 6-month PFS and 2-year OS. The findings of this study provide the necessary quantitative information for clinical practice and clinical trial design for the treatment of r/rDLBCL.

Placebo Response to Oral Administration in Osteoarthritis Clinical Trials and Its Associated Factors: A Model-Based Meta-analysis.

Importance: In osteoarthritis (OA) clinical trials, a placebo is often used as control. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the placebo response is important for guiding drug development in OA. Objective: To develop an oral placebo response model for OA. Data Sources: PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases were searched systematically from January 1, 1991, to July 2, 2022. Study Selection: Randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trials of patients with primary OA were included. The interventions and placebo were administered orally. A total of 3032 trials were identified; of these, 130 (4.3%) met the inclusion criteria. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) scores, dosage form of the placebo, sample size, proportion of patients who previously used nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, publication year, intervention categories, Kellgren-Lawrence grades, proportion of White patients, duration of pain, funding source, and risk of bias were extracted. A model-based meta-analysis was used to evaluate the time course of the placebo response in OA treatment and estimate the influencing factors. For subgroup analyses, a meta-analysis with a random-effects model was used to summarize the typical values of the model parameters and their SEs. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was the time course of the oral placebo response on the WOMAC pain, stiffness, and function subscale scores. Results: The 130 trials selected for analysis included 12 673 participants (mean age, 59.9 years; 68.9% women). The baseline scores of WOMAC pain, stiffness, and function subscales were found to be significantly associated with the placebo response. The placebo response reached 90% of its maximum response between 5 and 7 weeks. The placebo responses on the WOMAC subscales were also associated with the sample size, proportion of patients who had previously used nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, intervention drugs, and publication year. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, an oral placebo response model of OA was developed that may quantitatively describe the placebo response at different baseline levels of symptoms. The findings may provide valuable references for future clinical trial design and decision-making.

Quantitative comparison of the efficacies and safety profiles of three first-line non-platinum chemotherapy regimens for advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to quantify the efficacies and safety profiles of the three first-line non-platinum chemotherapy regimens recommended in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines. Materials and Methods: The PubMed and Cochrane Library databases were searched comprehensively, and clinical trials involving patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with one of three first-line non-platinum regimens (gemcitabine combined with vinorelbine, gemcitabine combined with docetaxel, or gemcitabine alone) were included in the analysis. A parametric proportional hazard survival model was established to analyze the time course of overall survival (OS). The objective response rate (ORR) and incidence rates of grade 3-4 adverse events (AEs) were summarized using a single-arm meta-analysis with a random-effects model. Results: Seventeen studies met the inclusion criteria. Age and performance status (PS) scores were significant predictors of OS. For each 10-years increase in age, mortality risk increased by 18.5%, and the mortality risk increased by 4% for every 10% increase in the proportion of patients with a PS score of 2. After correcting for the above factors, we found that the three first-line non-platinum chemotherapy regimens did not differ based on OS or toxicity. Conclusion: There was no significant difference in OS or toxicity among the three first-line non-platinum chemotherapy regimens. Age and PS scores were significant predictors of OS, and their heterogeneity across different studies should be considered in cross-study comparisons and sample size estimations when designing clinical trials.

Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling of Bedaquiline among Multidrug-Resistant Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patients from China.

Bedaquiline has been widely used as a part of combination dosage regimens for the treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients with limited options. Although the effectiveness and safety of bedaquiline have been demonstrated in clinical trials, limited studies have investigated the significant pharmacokinetics and the impact of genotype on bedaquiline disposition. Here, we developed a population pharmacokinetic model of bedaquiline to describe the concentration-time data from Chinese adult patients diagnosed with MDR-TB. A total of 246 observations were collected from 99 subjects receiving the standard recommended dosage. Bedaquiline disposition was well described by a one-compartment model with first-order absorption. Covariate modeling identified that gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs319952 in the AGBL4 gene were significantly associated with the apparent clearance of bedaquiline. The clearance (CL/F) was found to be 1.4 L/h lower for subjects with allele GG in SNP rs319952 than for subjects with alleles AG and AA and to decrease by 30% with a doubling in GGT. The model-based simulations were designed to assess the impact of GGT/SNP rs319952 on bedaquiline exposure and showed that patients with genotype GG in SNP rs319952 and GGT ranging from 10 to 50 U/L achieved the targeted maximum serum concentration at steady state (Cmax,ss). However, when GGT was increased to 100 U/L, Cmax,ss was 1.68-fold higher than the highest concentration pursued. The model developed provides the consideration of genetic polymorphism and hepatic function for bedaquiline dosage in MDR-TB adult patients.

Comparison on the effect of seven drugs to prevent relapses of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders: A modeling analysis of literature aggregate data.

BACKGROUND: Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD) is an immune-mediated demyelinating disease of the central nervous system. This study aimed to perform a comprehensive comparison of the effect of seven drugs to prevent relapses of NMOSD. METHOD: A literature search was conducted using public databases. Clinical studies on the seven drugs (eculizumab, inebilizumab, satralizumab, rituximab, tocilizumab, azathioprine, and mycophenolate mofetil) to prevent relapses of NMOSD were identified. A time-course model was established using the time to first relapse as the primary endpoint, in order to evaluate the long-term effect of each drug in preventing relapse. RESULTS: Twenty-four trials, including 2207 patients, were included in the model analysis. The results showed that monoclonal antibody therapy could significantly prolong the time to first relapse. Among all seven drugs, eculizumab can most significantly prevent patient from relapse. The estimated proportion of relapse-free patients treated with eculizumab was 98.9% at 24 months. CONCLUSION: Based on the construction of a time-course pharmacodynamic model, this study made a comprehensive quantitative comparison of seven drugs for the treatment of NMOSD for the first time. These results can not only serve as a quantitative supplement for the rational use of drugs in clinical practice but also provide a pharmacodynamic reference for clinical trial design and decision making in the future.

Quantitative Comparison of the Clinical Efficacy of 6 Classes Drugs for IgA Nephropathy: A Model-Based Meta-Analysis of Drugs for Clinical Treatments.

Introduction: There is a wide variety of drugs for the clinical treatment of immunoglobulin A (IgA) nephropathy; however, previous studies have failed to clarify the quantitative differences in the efficacy of various drugs. In this study, we aimed to quantitatively compare the clinical efficacy of 6 classes of drugs with different pharmacological mechanisms for the treatment of IgA nephropathy and to identify relevant influencing factors. Methods: Clinical trials of drugs for the treatment of IgA nephropathy were obtained from public databases. The change in daily urinary protein excretion from baseline was used as the efficacy index, and the time-effect model was established using a model-based meta-analysis method. Based on the final model, the typical efficacy was simulated, and the differences in efficacy were compared. Results: A total of 40 studies with 2288 subjects were included in this study. The results showed that the time-effect relationship of the placebo and 6 classes of drugs was consistent with the Emax model. The placebo reduced urinary protein excretion by up to 0.44 g/day, and it took more than 27 months to reach half of its maximum effect. The onset of the 6 classes of drugs were the same; they all reached half of their maximum effect after 5.59 months. More importantly, we found a significant influence of urinary protein baseline on drug efficacy, as indicated by an increase of 0.63 g/day in the theoretical maximum effect of drugs for every 1 g/day increase in urinary protein baseline. After correcting for the urinary protein baseline, the order of efficacy of the 6 classes of drugs was as follows: corticosteroids > immunosuppressants > other drugs > renin-angiotensin system blockers > antiplatelet agents > N-3 fatty acids. Conclusion: This study provides the first comprehensive quantitative analysis of the differences in the efficacy of 6 classes of drugs with different pharmacological mechanisms for treating IgA nephropathy. The results of this study provide an important reference for the rational clinical use of drugs for IgA nephropathy, and also provide a reliable efficacy standard for the development of new drugs for IgA nephropathy.

Modelling an evaluation of the efficacy and safety of gemcitabine combined with platinum in the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVES: Gemcitabine combined with platinum is currently the recommended first-line chemotherapy for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study aimed to quantitatively compare the efficacy and safety of gemcitabine-platinum combinations in the treatment of advanced NSCLC under different dosing regimens based on extensive literature data. METHODS: The PubMed and Cochrane Library databases were systematically searched for clinical trials in patients with NSCLC treated with a gemcitabine-platinum regimen. A parametric survival function was used to analyse the time course of overall survival (OS). The objective response rate (ORR) and the incidence of grade 3/4 adverse events were summarized using the random-effects model of a single-arm meta-analysis. RESULTS: The study included 63 arms from 47 publications, with a total sample size of 4344 patients for analysis. The model revealed that East Asians has a better survival benefit than non-East Asians, with a median OS of 16.4 (95% CI: 14.3-19.0) and 9.9 (95% CI: 8.1-12.4) months, respectively. Moreover, the OS of patients that underwent a 6-cycle treatment was significantly longer than those that had a 4-cycle treatment in non-East Asians, with a median OS of 10.2 (95% CI: 9.5-11.1) and 8.4 (95% CI: 7.7-9.3) months, respectively. However, the incidence of neutropenia, nausea and vomiting also increased after 6 cycles of treatment. When the dose of gemcitabine increased from 1000 mg/m2 to 1250 mg/m2 , the median OS was extended by approximately 1 month, but the incidence of grade 3/4 adverse reactions did not increase. WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: Race is an important factor affecting OS in the treatment of advanced NSCLC, which should be considered when conducting international multicentre clinical trials. Additionally, this study found that the OS increased with an increase in gemcitabine exposure, so it is necessary to construct an exposure-response model to obtain the best benefit-risk ratio for patients.

Population pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in Chinese adult liver transplant patients.

Tacrolimus is widely used in organ transplantation to prevent rejection. However, the narrow therapeutic window and the large inter-and intra-individual variability in the pharmacokinetics (PK) of tacrolimus make it difficult for individualization of dosing. This study aimed at developing a population pharmacokinetic model for estimating the oral clearance of tacrolimus in Chinese liver transplant patients, and identifying factors that contribute to the PK variability of tacrolimus. Data of 151 liver transplant patients who received tacrolimus were analyzed in this study. The population PK model was analyzed and the covariates including population demographic and biochemical characteristics, drug combination, and genetic polymorphism were explored using non-linear mixed-effects modeling approach. A single-compartment population PK model was developed, and the final model was CL/F = (14.6-2.38 × cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A5-3.72 × WZC+1.04 × (POD/9)+2.48 × COR) × Exp(ηi ), where CYP3A5 was 1 for CYP3A5*3/*3, Wuzhi Capsule (WZC) was 1 when patients took tacrolimus combined with WZC, otherwise it was 0, corticosteroids (COR) was 1 when patients take tacrolimus combined with COR, otherwise, it was 0, POD was the post-operative day. Visual inspection and bootstrap indicated that the final model was stable and robust. In this study, we developed the first tacrolimus population PK model in Chinese adult liver transplant patients. We first determined the influence of WZC on tacrolimus in these people, which could provide useful PK information for the drug combination of tacrolimus and WZC. We also revealed the influence of genetic polymorphism of CYP3A5, POD, and a combination of COR on tacrolimus PK. Therefore, these significant factors should be taken into consideration in optimizing dosage regimens.

Whether Patients With Stage â ¡/â ¢ Colorectal Cancer Benefit From Adjuvant Chemotherapy: A Modeling Analysis of Literature Aggregate Data.

Objective: This study used model analysis to clarify the benefits and risks of postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy compared with surgery alone in patients with stage II/III colorectal cancer. Methods: Clinical trials involving patients with stage II/III colorectal cancer who underwent surgery alone or those who received post-surgical adjuvant chemotherapy were searched in the PubMed and embase databases. By establishing a survival model, the overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of patients who underwent surgery alone or postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy were quantitatively analyzed to compare the differences between the two. In addition, the incidence of grade 3/4 adverse reactions in the adjuvant chemotherapy group was analyzed using the random effects model in the single-arm meta-analysis. Results: A total of 34 studies containing 33,069 patients were included in the analysis. This study found that postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy can effectively improve the OS and DFS of patients with colorectal cancer. The median OS of the adjuvant chemotherapy group and the surgery-only group was 118.8 months (95% CI: 96.6, 146.6) and 74.6 months (95% CI: 57.8, 96.1) respectively; and median DFS was 86.3 months (95% CI: 67.6, 110.6) and 40.8 months (95% CI: 23.7, 69.6) in the adjuvant chemotherapy and surgery-only groups, respectively. Common grade 3/4 adverse reactions in the adjuvant chemotherapy group include diarrhea, stomatitis, leukopenia, and nausea or vomiting, with an incidence of approximately 3%-6%. Conclusion: Patients with mid-stage colorectal cancer can benefit significantly from postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy. This study provides the necessary quantitative information for decision-making regarding the benefits and risks of receiving adjuvant chemotherapy after resection in patients with colorectal cancer.

Quantitative analysis of efficacy and safety of LABA/LAMA fixed-dose combinations in the treatment of stable COPD.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to quantitatively compare the efficacy and safety of long-acting ß2-agonist (LABA)/long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) for the treatment of stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), especially in terms of their loss of efficacy in lung function. METHODS: Randomized controlled clinical trials of LABA/LAMA FDCs for the treatment of stable COPD were comprehensively searched for in public databases. Pharmacodynamic models were established to describe the time course of the primary outcome [trough forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1)]. Secondary outcomes [COPD exacerbations, St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Transition Dyspnoea Index (TDI), and rescue medication use] and safety outcomes [mortality, serious adverse events (SAEs), and withdrawals due to adverse events (AEs)] were also compared via a meta-analysis. RESULTS: A total of 22 studies involving 16,486 participants were included in this study. The results showed that in terms of primary outcome (change from baseline in trough FEV1), the efficacy of vilanterol/umeclidinium was the highest, while the efficacy of formoterol/aclidinium was the lowest, with a maximum effect value (Emax) of 0.185 L [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.173-0.197 L] and 0.119 L (95% CI: 0.103-0.135 L), respectively. The efficacy of other drugs, such as formoterol/glycopyrronium, indacaterol/glycopyrronium, and olodaterol/tiotropium, were comparable, and their Emax values were 0.150-0.177 L. Except for vilanterol/umeclidinium, the other four LABA/LAMA FDCs showed a certain degree of loss of efficacy. Compared with the efficacy at 2 days, the trough FEV1 (L) relative to baseline at 24 weeks decreased by 0.029-0.041 L. In terms of secondary outcomes, the efficacy of different LABA/LAMA FDCs was similar in TDI and rescue medication use. However, formoterol/aclidinium was better in preventing the COPD exacerbations, while vilanterol/umeclidinium was the best in terms of SGRQ. In addition, different LABA/LAMA FDCs and placebo had similar safety outcomes. CONCLUSION: The present findings may provide necessary quantitative information for COPD medication guidelines.

Quantitative comparison of dose-effect and time-course of fluticasone furoate and fluticasone propionate in adult and adolescent patients with persistent asthma: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

This study aimed to quantitatively compare the efficacy of fluticasone furoate (FF) and fluticasone propionate (FP) in adolescents and adults with asthma. We searched the PubMed and EMBASE databases for placebo-controlled trials that met the inclusion criteria. Pharmacodynamic models were established to describe the time-course of the primary outcome (trough forced expiratory volume in the first second [FEV1 ]). Secondary outcomes (asthma symptoms, quality of life and exacerbations) were also compared via a meta-analysis. A total of 14 articles were included in the analysis, involving 6640 subjects. The efficacy plateau of the two drugs could be reached in 2 weeks. The changes from the baseline in trough FEV1 (95% CI) at week 2 of FF at 200 and 100 µg/day were 0.168 L (0.064-0.199) and 0.127 L (0.048-0.163), respectively. The changes from the baseline in trough FEV1 (95% CI) at week 2 of FP at 1000, 500, 250 and 100 µg/day were 0.133 L (0.049-0.171), 0.127 L (0.043-0.163), 0.117 L (0.039-0.150) and 0.093 L (0.032-0.129), respectively. The efficacy of FP had reached a plateau at the maximum evaluated dose (1000 µg/day), while a plateau effect was not seen at the maximum evaluated dose of FF (200 µg/day). In terms of secondary outcomes, the relative effects of the two drugs relative to the placebo were similar and did not show obvious dose-effect relationships. In this study, the time-course and dose-effect characteristics of FP, FF and placebo were quantitatively evaluated, providing necessary quantitative information for asthma-related guidelines.

A Real-World Study of Risk Factors for QTc Prolongation in Schizophrenia Patients Receiving Atypical Antipsychotics.

PURPOSE: The risk of sudden cardiac death in patients receiving atypical antipsychotics may be related to QTc prolongation. The aim of this study was to investigate the risk factors for QTc prolongation to prevent QTc prolongation and guide clinical practice. METHODS: All electrocardiogram recordings of 913 schizophrenia patients who were receiving atypical antipsychotics were reviewed for prolonged QTc and associated conditions. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to investigate risk factors for QTc prolongation. RESULTS: Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that sex (odds ratio [OR], 0.386; P = 0.010), age (OR, 1.047; P = 0.000), high-density lipoprotein (OR, 0.257; P = 0.014), and antipsychotics dose (OR, 1.040; P = 0.036) were significantly associated with QTc prolongation. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with male sex, elder age, low high-density lipoprotein, or large antipsychotics dose, QTc should be monitored more frequently.